How to Use Bowtie Analysis to Strengthen Critical Risk Management

Critical risks can rarely be managed by relying on a single control. A serious incident may develop through several threats, control failures and escalation points. Bowtie analysis provides a practical way to visualise these relationships and determine whether an organisation has effective barriers in place.


Select the Right Critical Risk for Bowtie Analysis

Start with a risk that genuinely deserves deeper analysis. A broad brush risk assessment can help organisations identify their overall risk landscape before focusing resources on scenarios that could materially affect people, operations, assets or reputation.

A risk is particularly suitable for bowtie analysis when it has high-consequence potential, could result in a fatality or other major harm, or has low confidence in the effectiveness of existing controls. Risks involving multiple threats, complex control arrangements or significant uncertainty about barrier performance may also warrant closer examination.

The Energy Institute and the Centre for Chemical Process Safety describe bowtie analysis as a qualitative risk assessment and barrier management methodology that helps organisations examine threats, consequences and the barriers intended to prevent or mitigate them.

Identify Threats and Preventive Barriers

Place the potential threats on the left side of the bowtie. These might include:

  • Equipment deterioration
  • Incorrect procedures
  • Human error
  • Instrument failure
  • Inadequate maintenance

Then identify the barriers designed to prevent these threats from causing the central event.

However, don't simply list controls because they exist in a procedure. Ask who owns each control, how it works and how its effectiveness is verified. Bowtie guidance emphasises identifying and assessing the effectiveness of critical barriers.

Explore material risk assessment and bowtie analysis in depth.

Map the Right Side of the Bowtie

The right side of the bowtie shows what could happen after the top event. Depending on the scenario, consequences could include injuries, environmental harm, asset damage, business interruption or regulatory consequences.

Then identify mitigating controls such as emergency shutdown systems, containment, alarms, evacuation procedures and emergency response arrangements.

See how Impress Solutions approaches critical risk assessment.

Prepare for a Crisis Before It Happens

How do companies handle crises related to critical risks? The strongest organisations prepare before the crisis occurs. They establish emergency response procedures, assign responsibilities, define communication channels and identify the controls needed to limit escalation.

For example, a crisis communication plan can provide clear messaging to employees, customers and other stakeholders, while contingency arrangements help maintain essential operations. Bowtie models can support this preparation by showing both preventive and reactive controls.

Ask practical questions to test the recovery side:

  • What happens if the primary control fails?
  • Who activates the emergency response?
  • How quickly can the organisation respond?
  • What alternative controls are available?
  • How will the organisation recover afterwards?


Turn the Bowtie Into Ongoing Risk Management

A bowtie should not become a static diagram stored in a risk folder. Review it after incidents, near misses, significant operational changes or control failures.

The real value lies in using it to assign ownership, monitor critical controls and identify weaknesses before they contribute to a major event. This analysis is also the best approach for material risk assessment.

Key Takeaway
  • Bowtie analysis starts with the organisation's risk assessment.
  • Selecting a risk with high-consequence potential, fatality potential or low control confidence helps focus analysis where deeper examination is warranted.
  • Identifying threats and preventive barriers is a vital step on the left side of the bowtie.
  • The right side shows the potential consequences of the top event and the controls that can help mitigate them.
  • Organisations should also prepare for control failures and potential escalation through tested response and recovery arrangements.

Get help with critical risk assessment at https://www.impresssolutions.com.au/

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